TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or higher on February 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,321
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,321 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,636$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.742,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…379bbacked Yes2c2,747$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.33324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef65…d64fbacked Yes1c2,169$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9419171.7%137 W · 54 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd892…5f0dbacked Yes56c1,331$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+67.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed Yes33c1,149$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.2713122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes47c1,038$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.412,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29dd…1338backed No73c998.4$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes5c806.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403540%14 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab24…31c4backed Yes22c763.76$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.683956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed No39c700$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42828737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacd0…5a9fbacked No70c628.19$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb4…c01dbacked Yes6c574$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes39c561.01$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes47c539.61$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.891,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes16c490.72$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6733620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed No65c438.28$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7222728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No19c426.88$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.9171823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc083…5b64backed Yes76c422.37$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+240%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes4c420.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.911,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes16c400$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6247834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes26c354.41$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3716934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No32c353.58$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.0117243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes28c320.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.733627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57e0…8761backed Yes70c303.39$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.121650%8 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes6c266$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7482…6cf6backed Yes25c256.35$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.663534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes43c245$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.956217.7%11 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-66.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes5c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes10c186$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6852533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No65c185.98$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.462,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes24c183.92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.252,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes48c181.72$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4366543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No58c179.37$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1726828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes60c172.76$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.479741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes37c170.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes21c151.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6655919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes30c149.52$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8614719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No73c143.61$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9910246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes21c140$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes9c125.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.881,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No24c125.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1336819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes15c125.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3826834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No74c123.25$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.097,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d35…3af0backed Yes45c120.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.273871.1%27 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0205…dc0cbacked Yes21c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-34.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes30c116.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes60c110.55$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0761659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c102.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x610c…998fbacked Yes25c98.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.352733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes14c97.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.868017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10c0…a15ebacked Yes24c88.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes24c87.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4343515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No60c85.13$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.643,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2421448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No37c79.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No54c74.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed Yes53c71.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.811338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ad…b986backed Yes22c67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe55…f943backed Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes21c59.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.695839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes44c57.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3434633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes39c51.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c4…6a81backed Yes39c50.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a76…5584backed No28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365058%29 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1512073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.517956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cde…1af7backed No51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0220146.3%93 W · 108 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No56c46.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.272466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes43c42.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac6…b663backed No60c41.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.686741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes37c41.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1413946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfca…8d8abacked Yes79c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.41942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed No78c37.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.191442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c37.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6715818.4%29 W · 129 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc46c…8ce2backed Yes54c37.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fee…1502backed Yes74c32.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.241747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No65c32.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5334457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe8…2914backed Yes35c32.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…ecdcbacked Yes55c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9417…28a3backed No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88139.5%32 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8495…9087backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ded…7d04backed No69c14.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.