Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb3534c292a71d4e85304f0e3390a43205da334635265e7a3165f17be93d4c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 2,065$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.21 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 67c | 1,485$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 14c | 1,140$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 1,003$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.8 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 11c | 792.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 33c | 705.32$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.76 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 11c | 364.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 73c | 296.36$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 227.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 75c | 187.32$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 70c | 161.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…f081backed Under | 38c | 126.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Over | 75c | 34.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 36c | 32.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…ba11backed Over | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa410…f61fbacked Over | 73c | 30.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 75c | 29.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee5…bc7bbacked Over | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 74c | 21.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -50%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…af0cbacked Over | 72c | 17.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.