Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x871ab8a37bef567964b3e11142c9259e42831290d7d2a2ce7cf46884d7c06c33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 48c | 4,213$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 52c | 1,972$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 55c | 1,801$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 1,623$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.83 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 22c | 1,197$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.95 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 36c | 861.59$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.74 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 68c | 753.07$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.54 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…7cefbacked Over | 23c | 644.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 67c | 623.26$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.68 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 586$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…61cbbacked Under | 67c | 583.25$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 504.25$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.12 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 32c | 431.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 25c | 426.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 29c | 330.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 27c | 319.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 290.11$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa14…757ebacked Under | 75c | 262.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 52c | 248.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 52c | 211.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Under | 50c | 194.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 57c | 171.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…ce96backed Over | 63c | 164.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 45c | 164.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 43c | 156.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 13c | 152.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Under | 79c | 149.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 50c | 141.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Under | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 30c | 121.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 46c | 106.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 79c | 87.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 32c | 74.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 38c | 65.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 52c | 53.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…f081backed Over | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 47.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 47c | 46.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3a…845ebacked Under | 52c | 45.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Under | 78c | 45.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 65c | 43.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…dd8fbacked Under | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…aea3backed Over | 45c | 42.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 62c | 36.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 52c | 30.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Under | 73c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…24aebacked Over | 51c | 26.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 51c | 23.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -9.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 64c | 20.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 67c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.