Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3d1d9c35974f1e9ea802c21ae6861f755ffbc4e9c81c6fce48445f5274ce7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 52c | 3,074$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.76 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Over | 52c | 2,582$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 27c | 2,515$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.69 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 2,510$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.94 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 2,035$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.6 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 64c | 2,018$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 24c | 1,032$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.31 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 999.97$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.98 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 959.18$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.76 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 51c | 941.77$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.81 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 52c | 933.94$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.29 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 706.26$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 24c | 647.18$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.41 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 59c | 639.27$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.57 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 35c | 509.44$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.54 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…2653backed Under | 49c | 491.96$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…3c89backed Over | 51c | 490.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 47c | 482.22$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.74 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 75c | 409.32$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +83%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 404$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.92 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 35c | 393.24$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Over | 76c | 387.32$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…b517backed Over | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 61c | 355.56$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 323.38$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Under | 50c | 291$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under | 48c | 290.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under | 49c | 288.57$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 67c | 267.17$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Under | 48c | 265.77$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 79c | 254.72$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 74c | 248.51$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…7200backed Over | 53c | 233.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 35c | 218.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 44c | 218.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.47 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 54c | 214.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Under | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 158.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 150.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 52c | 144$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 72c | 136.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 132.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Under | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 48c | 101.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 48c | 101.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 48c | 101.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 101.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…c93abacked Over | 53c | 94.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…cc6abacked Under | 48c | 92.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 49c | 92.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 49c | 79.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 51c | 76.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 60c | 74.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 72.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8006…94dcbacked Under | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 55c | 55.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…29b4backed Over | 46c | 49.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 47c | 42.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Under | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 51c | 37.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 77c | 32.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Over | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 50c | 29.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Over | 36c | 29.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 66c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 28.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…b5fdbacked Over | 69c | 26.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 46c | 24.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed Over | 52c | 23.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…752abacked Over | 51c | 20.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 51c | 20.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 80c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.