Asian League · resolved market
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd64935e277bb35e353ac5de5f9e49b5a0d80b86ec50e36ca7b0644eec944006b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 785.8$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.96 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 50c | 770.92$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.19 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 766.95$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.12 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 492.29$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.01 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 47c | 412.33$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.64 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 44c | 399.68$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.85 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…17c5backed Under | 43c | 321.31$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 69c | 213.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.21 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…85f2backed Over | 34c | 198.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 47c | 184.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…28dabacked Over | 57c | 171.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 49c | 164.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 55c | 147.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 43c | 111.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 48c | 101.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 53c | 91.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 14c | 81.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 81.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1da…23a3backed Under | 56c | 76.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Under | 37c | 58.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 50cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 27c | 54.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 46.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 26c | 39.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 50c | 36.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 73c | 29.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 73c | 29.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 72c | 29.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…63afbacked Over | 52c | 28.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…6822backed Over | 52c | 28.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 65c | 20.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd7…c673backed Over | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Over | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…a207backed Under | 79c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5this page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.