Asian League · resolved market
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8012c263bc0a01acd51fd254dbb57e4c311807098dc95bd5d470d395984047a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 4c | 774.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 697.92$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.96 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 29c | 687.47$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.81 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 18c | 523.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…37ccbacked Yes | 41c | 326.03$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Yes | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 68c | 144.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…6c9fbacked Yes | 69c | 141.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 27c | 135.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 75c | 117.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 68c | 103.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 68c | 86.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes | 68c | 86.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…aea3backed No | 15c | 68.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 52c | 65.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 54c | 65.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 34c | 63.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 762 | 55.9%426 W · 336 L | +38.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021e…1e56backed Yes | 80c | 57.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e2…6538backed Yes | 72c | 50.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 61c | 42.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…cb2bbacked Yes | 79c | 42.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 34c | 42.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Yes | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 61c | 41.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes | 40c | 39.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Yes | 70c | 39.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b1…732bbacked Yes | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Yes | 68c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 39c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756c…651bbacked Yes | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ea…645fbacked Yes | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3063…e5e1backed No | 64c | 15.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw?No won
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.