Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7da1848e9811af05af8274515d363ece691e0e9df1b02f79c5f1645dc870ebf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmundof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, FC Augsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,369 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Augsburg | 58c | 5,772$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 40c | 4,835$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900.99 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 40c | 2,762$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.55 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked FC Augsburg | 60c | 2,489$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.4 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 50c | 2,007$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Augsburg | 60c | 1,761$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.11 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FC Augsburg | 58c | 1,215$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.55 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd4…5faabacked FC Augsburg | 49c | 1,213$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.24 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 42c | 522.83$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.02 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 41c | 439.02$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.02 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 41c | 389.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.09 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 37c | 335.82$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.57 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 43c | 325.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed FC Augsburg | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffe…ce5bbacked FC Augsburg | 59c | 211.86$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed FC Augsburg | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 40c | 172.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…5159backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 40c | 165$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 40c | 152.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked FC Augsburg | 54c | 148.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…919cbacked FC Augsburg | 60c | 130.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…68c4backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 43c | 128.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed FC Augsburg | 31c | 126.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67f…b74ebacked FC Augsburg | 58c | 124.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 80c | 121.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5334…91fcbacked FC Augsburg | 58c | 117.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25a…d724backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed FC Augsburg | 57c | 114.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…ed99backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 43c | 113.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…c739backed FC Augsburg | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FC Augsburg | 30c | 89.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked FC Augsburg | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 43c | 80.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 54c | 74.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked FC Augsburg | 57c | 60.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 74c | 60.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 37c | 59.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…6816backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked FC Augsburg | 58c | 39.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed FC Augsburg | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f07…8626backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 52c | 38.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed FC Augsburg | 59c | 36.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked FC Augsburg | 51c | 29.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…3dbabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 41c | 28.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…e456backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 53c | 28.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Augsburg | 61c | 22.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed FC Augsburg | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed FC Augsburg | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked FC Augsburg | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.