Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29e7dd095e328c52705f11a183f767f2f1ba1696806ae9108aba8e9f463e1a1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Augsburgof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, FC Augsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,259 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Augsburg | 77c | 1,577$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 920.01$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.95 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 20c | 231$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 20c | 229.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 23c | 117.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed FC Augsburg | 76c | 78.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked FC Augsburg | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 39c | 38.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…76bfbacked FC Augsburg | 76c | 26.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Augsburg | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed FC Augsburg | 56c | 20.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Augsburg | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.