Bundesliga · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99d848bebb9262dfca94ab566aa0b7f30be60f6ff198f4f6ea2569c70c59c7a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,080 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Under | 60c | 24,877$14,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,950.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…4535backed Over | 40c | 23,652$9,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,460.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 3,675$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 60c | 2,995$1,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 2,426$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.4 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Under | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 38c | 1,370$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.56 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 40c | 1,251$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 40c | 1,156$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.48 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 35c | 1,154$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.02 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…18c4backed Under | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 60c | 883.88$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.55 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 60c | 467$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.8 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…6409backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 38c | 201$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 70c | 194.29$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 133.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Under | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 58c | 66.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 63.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 57.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 59c | 54.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 44c | 53.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…359bbacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…d44dbacked Under | 52c | 45.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Under | 54c | 45.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…0412backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…4853backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…7d08backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 19.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.