TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Leeds United FCof Manchester United FC, Leeds United FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$638,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$636,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $638,389 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf592…9872backed Manchester United FC0c311,501$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.791947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Manchester United FC34c98,865$33,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,61411445.6%52 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Leeds United FC66c95,219$62,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,374.4613748.2%66 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Manchester United FC38c54,206$20,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,598.463234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Manchester United FC37c31,272$11,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,570.461643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Leeds United FC64c23,617$15,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,598.412,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba8…cdb3backed Leeds United FC62c22,175$13,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,426.491457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c4…6f95backed Leeds United FC63c20,196$12,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,448.1916040.6%65 W · 95 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Leeds United FC62c20,195$12,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,674.193369.7%23 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+37.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8401…0fa1backed Manchester United FC38c18,316$6,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,880.361118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Leeds United FC70c12,848$9,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,792.576,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Leeds United FC63c10,931$6,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,044.517557.1%100 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe54d…fea1backed Leeds United FC62c8,343$5,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,170.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8bb…e40fbacked Leeds United FC63c4,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4803948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Leeds United FC65c3,987$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.334641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Leeds United FC63c3,887$2,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.3655751.5%287 W · 270 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Manchester United FC38c3,801$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.212532.8%41 W · 84 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80e4…a6d4backed Manchester United FC6c3,589$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Manchester United FC35c3,190$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.758345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Leeds United FC62c3,147$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.79061.1%55 W · 35 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed Manchester United FC37c2,814$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.341442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Manchester United FC8c2,810$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.5874644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4d…0486backed Manchester United FC9c2,129$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.56742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Manchester United FC36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.979055.6%50 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Leeds United FC66c1,745$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.29256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Manchester United FC34c1,695$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.243847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Leeds United FC63c1,617$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.6520545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf233…589dbacked Manchester United FC37c1,564$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.521127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Leeds United FC63c1,546$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.683151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…ee5abacked Manchester United FC34c1,482$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1a…e54ebacked Manchester United FC34c1,412$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Manchester United FC37c1,400$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.712,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x901c…327bbacked Manchester United FC17c1,397$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.551040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Leeds United FC62c1,336$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.532345.2%146 W · 177 L-1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Leeds United FC64c1,160$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.841850.7%212 W · 206 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x151e…c6dbbacked Manchester United FC37c1,040$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.88933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Leeds United FC62c1,011$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.15552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf8c…2f40backed Leeds United FC63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Manchester United FC33c999.92$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.971225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Manchester United FC33c992.8$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.896650%33 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x109c…dc20backed Leeds United FC62c989.9$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Leeds United FC64c971.63$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.19152.7%48 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Manchester United FC35c915.58$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3244238.1%16 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-36.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Manchester United FC33c861.03$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.029131.9%29 W · 62 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Leeds United FC63c839.98$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.7917959.8%107 W · 72 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed Leeds United FC63c763.66$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.551291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick73cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeba1…838bbacked Manchester United FC37c686.03$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4363…d6e0backed Leeds United FC67c650.44$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.654854.2%26 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Manchester United FC39c617.56$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.857847.4%37 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…a678backed Manchester United FC35c604.06$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Manchester United FC36c555.47$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.022634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Manchester United FC37c545.56$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.861241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84dc…a8b1backed Manchester United FC38c505.93$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.251428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Leeds United FC64c501.37$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.473040%12 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Leeds United FC67c501.01$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.578259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Manchester United FC33c499.66$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8918646.8%87 W · 99 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Manchester United FC37c498.89$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.596737.3%25 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Leeds United FC64c489.2$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1123258.2%135 W · 97 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Manchester United FC36c480.8$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.093240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Manchester United FC36c451.71$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.623447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Leeds United FC63c431.54$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4418156.4%102 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Manchester United FC38c405.39$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.054630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Manchester United FC36c398.57$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4917549.1%86 W · 89 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Leeds United FC64c395.7$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.7316858.3%98 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Manchester United FC34c369.22$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.531947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+43.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Manchester United FC38c354.72$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7910847.2%51 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x834b…52d1backed Manchester United FC35c302.03$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9eb…aee9backed Manchester United FC36c298.38$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.422544%11 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf45…c794backed Manchester United FC35c289.84$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.443246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Leeds United FC64c285.12$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.778549.4%42 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Manchester United FC17c283.41$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.56175.4%46 W · 15 L+12.0wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+35%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked Manchester United FC34c282.47$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.043727%10 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-39.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x772f…a69fbacked Manchester United FC34c282.47$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.041428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Manchester United FC36c277.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.944934.7%17 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-33.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Leeds United FC63c277.38$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.844656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Manchester United FC37c274.1$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.422138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Leeds United FC67c263.8$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6919244.8%86 W · 106 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Manchester United FC37c260.05$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.225238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Manchester United FC38c253.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2812549.6%62 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba3a…b49abacked Manchester United FC38c253.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.28650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dca…ce96backed Manchester United FC38c253.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.282420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc274…6d59backed Manchester United FC33c238.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.736144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Leeds United FC62c236.41$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.847851.3%40 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Manchester United FC37c222.58$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.354742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Leeds United FC64c214.75$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.312055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Manchester United FC34c211.12$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.786541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3605…e7cbbacked Manchester United FC37c208.04$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c8…68d7backed Manchester United FC17c206.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.164022.5%9 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Manchester United FC36c199.84$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4480953.6%434 W · 375 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02c…7579backed Manchester United FC37c197.75$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Manchester United FC37c197.64$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.136634.8%23 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7abf…8dd3backed Leeds United FC66c188.02$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.471346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa8…645bbacked Manchester United FC17c169.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.771631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Manchester United FC16c162.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.391,66234.9%580 W · 1,082 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b5…5b6abacked Manchester United FC38c156.78$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa338…e65cbacked Manchester United FC37c156.04$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Manchester United FC19c155.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2251516.1%83 W · 432 L-49.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5127…de1ebacked Leeds United FC63c155.21$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.433237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…d11dbacked Manchester United FC37c153.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.773026.7%8 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Leeds United FC64c152.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.042166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.