Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf19aa3aaa208f29c2aae9546687f4c79347a9a9a305341f6b726b433927db5d4

Rebuilt 8 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $77,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $100,324

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,334 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over	25c	8,190$2,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,077.12	4,768	41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	21c	6,650$1,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,408	136	30.9%42 W · 94 L	-7.4wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbed3…2811backed Under	73c	5,155$3,778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,377.6	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	66cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6638…0b09backed Under	61c	4,240$2,604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,635.6	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over	19c	3,825$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$733.62	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	27c	2,227$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.69	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked Over	1c	2,200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1414…ae7bbacked Under	75c	2,069$1,551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$517.12	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	28c	1,845$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.68	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a94…769cbacked Over	29c	1,155$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.07	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-3.9wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Under	75c	1,099$824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.77	109	60.6%66 W · 43 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	66cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90d…cf07backed Over	23c	1,072$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.27	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	74c	1,072$791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.93	117	53%62 W · 55 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a89…8e52backed Under	77c	953.62$736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.58	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	67cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	68c	611.42$413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.32	746	44.8%334 W · 412 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d2…7c0dbacked Under	68c	559.71$381 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.11	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	68cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under	77c	512.31$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.83	74	63.5%47 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	39c	511.25$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.13	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Over	4c	499.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	93	47.3%44 W · 49 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	67c	487.63$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.61	395	55.9%221 W · 174 L	+17.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b1f…f549backed Under	80c	484.12$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.82	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over	20c	478.26$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.19	354	28.5%101 W · 253 L	-20.1wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	67c	472.33$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.6	275	52.7%145 W · 130 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under	67c	472.29$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.59	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	71c	436.31$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.07	192	44.8%86 W · 106 L	-10.2wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	24c	434.36$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.3	1,690	34.9%589 W · 1,101 L	-33.1wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	69c	429.45$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.68	406	55.2%224 W · 182 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over	29c	423.58$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.57	71	43.7%31 W · 40 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under	73c	417.09$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.32	175	57.1%100 W · 75 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Over	29c	382.92$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.38	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	28c	380.81$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.63	293	43.7%128 W · 165 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under	65c	374.27$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.46	167	57.5%96 W · 71 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9101…78ddbacked Under	74c	354.38$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.14	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	72cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Over	31c	320$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.2	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	35c	301.17$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.17	306	45.8%140 W · 166 L	-11.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Over	19c	295.43$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.13	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Under	73c	268.94$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.61	23	73.9%17 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	65cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd73…4da1backed Over	41c	237.42$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.44	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-4.4wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over	42c	230.86$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.51	422	40.3%170 W · 252 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Over	19c	229.89$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.68	99	29.3%29 W · 70 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef7…0e08backed Under	79c	218.61$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Under	75c	203.62$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.86	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+3.2wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	76c	199.46$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.87	413	43.3%179 W · 234 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x43c7…d727backed Over	34c	195.5$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.26	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under	70c	184.15$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.63	240	52.9%127 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eaa…c521backed Over	18c	155.07$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.51	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under	64c	151.77$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.89	288	59.7%172 W · 116 L	+19.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43bc…d3ddbacked Under	68c	151.66$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.84	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under	69c	143.14$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.56	235	56.2%132 W · 103 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under	69c	143.14$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.56	115	55.7%64 W · 51 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under	69c	129.54$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.33	300	57%171 W · 129 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x297e…612fbacked Under	80c	128.58$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.91	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	28c	125.48$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	1,938	42.5%823 W · 1,115 L	-41.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Over	25c	102.52$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	122	45.1%55 W · 67 L	-7.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8e3…05e1backed Over	28c	102.51$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	126	47.6%60 W · 66 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7663…c9aabacked Over	28c	102.51$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Over	30c	80.18$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.17	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc7…e11cbacked Under	63c	77.42$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.53	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	64cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1f…6823backed Under	72c	75.39$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	92	62%57 W · 35 L	+7.0wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4eb6…9ce6backed Over	14c	75.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over	39c	69.97$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.59	129	51.2%66 W · 63 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2a…5f8fbacked Over	30c	69.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under	71c	69.2$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.99	202	59.9%121 W · 81 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Under	76c	65.23$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.93	45	71.1%32 W · 13 L	+4.3wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	73c	61.21$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.58	172	44.2%76 W · 96 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Under	67c	58.19$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.97	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+5.5wins	+0.16per pick	52cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b3e…4d47backed Over	41c	57.88$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	72c	57$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.96	410	21.7%89 W · 321 L	-54.8wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over	19c	54.79$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Under	73c	54.27$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.44	417	60.2%251 W · 166 L	+22.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe503…6d7bbacked Over	27c	53.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f4…0336backed Under	66c	51.64$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.34	30	50%15 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	773	36.4%281 W · 492 L	-10.3wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fad…a796backed Over	33c	48.95$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.15	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c40…7c34backed Under	72c	47.79$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.38	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under	61c	47.56$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.38	125	61.6%77 W · 48 L	+8.3wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Under	61c	45.87$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.89	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under	61c	45.87$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.89	72	63.9%46 W · 26 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Under	61c	40.02$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b68…0060backed Over	28c	38.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+5.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under	65c	27.11$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.49	724	42.7%309 W · 415 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cb…0b59backed Under	75c	26.27$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.57	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	70cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac1…3afebacked Under	75c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.25	20	75%15 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d46…26d8backed Under	68c	23.88$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.59	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	68cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb71…b5a0backed Under	68c	21.64$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.92	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6e…326cbacked Under	70c	21.04$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.31	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.26per pick	38cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed Under	67c	19.6$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.47	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2463…f5b5backed Under	64c	19.57$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.04	99	53.5%53 W · 46 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1d…7132backed Under	60c	19.52$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.81	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked Under	79c	14.79$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.08	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5this page
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Leeds United FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event