Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e65063ff63b2ee7deeada7542083edf008790f8cbd868b40a5c79872df91f73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester United FCof Leeds United FC, Manchester United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Leeds United FC | 36c | 19,996$7,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,198.5 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 9,571$6,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,419.79 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Leeds United FC | 17c | 4,025$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.37 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 3,109$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.85 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 1,419$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.47 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Manchester United FC | 63c | 959.65$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.79 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 473$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Manchester United FC | 64c | 473$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 473$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Manchester United FC | 64c | 473$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 473$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 392.2$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.01 | 167 | 57.5%96 W · 71 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Manchester United FC | 64c | 368.2$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Manchester United FC | 64c | 305.96$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 305.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Manchester United FC | 64c | 245.43$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Leeds United FC | 14c | 147.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 97.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Leeds United FC | 29c | 52.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Manchester United FC | 70c | 32.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Manchester United FC | 73c | 31.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9744…cab4backed Manchester United FC | 64c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Manchester United FC | 64c | 24.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed Manchester United FC | 66c | 21.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Manchester United FC | 64c | 20.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Manchester United FC | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Leeds United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.