Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61a442039dc634b44f4723d3189950e2463b375a04f3d00b3ffe4b59f92056f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Union Berlinof RB Leipzig, 1. FC Union Berlin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 52c | 10,577$5,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,083.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed RB Leipzig | 52c | 9,620$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.4 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 45c | 2,550$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked RB Leipzig | 58c | 2,418$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 77c | 2,300$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 47c | 1,441$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.51 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked RB Leipzig | 24c | 1,135$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.34 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed RB Leipzig | 33c | 797.15$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.37 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed RB Leipzig | 53c | 749.83$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.92 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked RB Leipzig | 25c | 530.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 56c | 511.97$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.7 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…a1fabacked RB Leipzig | 29c | 428.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 48c | 392.74$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.94 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed RB Leipzig | 24c | 357.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 16c | 301.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.34 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 72c | 299.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…3708backed RB Leipzig | 24c | 239.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…26f7backed RB Leipzig | 55c | 238.83$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed RB Leipzig | 55c | 229.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 75c | 166$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed RB Leipzig | 51c | 129.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 75c | 128.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked RB Leipzig | 24c | 119.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…5f62backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 72c | 105.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed RB Leipzig | 45c | 102.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked RB Leipzig | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked RB Leipzig | 28c | 94.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed RB Leipzig | 39c | 94.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed RB Leipzig | 41c | 93.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed RB Leipzig | 52c | 91.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed RB Leipzig | 46c | 91.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed RB Leipzig | 55c | 89.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 51c | 86.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 77c | 82.16$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 37c | 78.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 37c | 78.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x753e…5c11backed RB Leipzig | 57c | 66.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed RB Leipzig | 23c | 63.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 47c | 61.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed RB Leipzig | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 52c | 57.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…779fbacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 76c | 54.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 76c | 54.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…8e6bbacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 75c | 54.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked RB Leipzig | 74c | 53.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed RB Leipzig | 37c | 52.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed RB Leipzig | 27c | 44.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 50c | 43.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…12e2backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 71c | 41.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed RB Leipzig | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 72c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 77c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed RB Leipzig | 55c | 28.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed RB Leipzig | 55c | 28.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed RB Leipzig | 70c | 27.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 70c | 24.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 63c | 23.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 55c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked RB Leipzig | 52c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…5453backed 1. FC Union Berlin | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked 1. FC Union Berlin | 55c | 19.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked RB Leipzig | 70c | 17.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)this page
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.