Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb26a2f4274a916c6150f41ccaf9a6dc1b575c36957612c6cd85dcabf23ab0e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 57c | 2,876$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 2,516$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 18c | 2,492$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.19 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 2,162$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.96 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 21c | 1,923$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.84 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 20c | 1,357$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.42 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 48c | 1,296$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…e083backed Over | 42c | 1,181$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.1 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 77c | 1,135$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Over | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 47c | 980.92$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.03 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Over | 46c | 944.83$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 72c | 842.26$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 41c | 654.59$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.38 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…61cbbacked Under | 76c | 647.86$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 56c | 584.16$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 72c | 398.74$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 19c | 374.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 357.8$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 33c | 353.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…af5fbacked Under | 58c | 351.38$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c0…44febacked Over | 14c | 338.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 51c | 334.84$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.08 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 246.38$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 73c | 218.43$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 54c | 191.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 22c | 173.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 168.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 62c | 136.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 79c | 130.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 10c | 128.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Under | 76c | 126.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Under | 57c | 110.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 20c | 101.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36a…832abacked Over | 17c | 100.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 22c | 99.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 78c | 97.42$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 20c | 86.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Over | 37c | 73.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…6eccbacked Under | 67c | 70.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…553cbacked Under | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 27c | 67.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Under | 70c | 66.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Under | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 58.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 67c | 44.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 32c | 42.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 71c | 33.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 78c | 30.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 43c | 25.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 79c | 24.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Under | 58c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 72c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 77c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 71c | 14.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.