Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3db234d7cca6a642d9cc7cf6dab2efa59b0404a4e38d3762e9ca4479811d730b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 51c | 2,895$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.48 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 2,138$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 43c | 1,123$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…98c3backed Yes | 46c | 793.01$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…2d75backed Yes | 55c | 765.84$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 43c | 667.92$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.44 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 57c | 660.49$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.01 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…6a99backed No | 48c | 605.5$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 9c | 443.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 443.11$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 43c | 386.32$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 57c | 315.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed No | 10c | 296.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 51c | 288.39$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 43c | 279.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 50c | 264.29$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a2…468cbacked No | 44c | 249.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked No | 49c | 247.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 43c | 229.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 42c | 199.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 46c | 193.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…3154backed Yes | 54c | 188.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…79ddbacked Yes | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 69c | 163.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 42c | 158.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed No | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 62c | 137.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…a1fabacked No | 70c | 131.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 57c | 125.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked No | 56c | 123.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 37c | 104.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed Yes | 48c | 101.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Yes | 52c | 92.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 31c | 90.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Yes | 22c | 88.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 45c | 81.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 51c | 76.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked Yes | 32c | 75.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…2ef5backed No | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Yes | 57c | 68.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Yes | 56c | 64.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c4…5e52backed Yes | 58c | 54.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed No | 78c | 52.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 57c | 50.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Yes | 57c | 50.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 57c | 50.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…a3a2backed No | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 59c | 45.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6137…7203backed No | 45c | 42.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 58c | 42.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Yes | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…a181backed No | 45c | 36.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…e4abbacked Yes | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…c7eabacked Yes | 53c | 31.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e083backed Yes | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…2e36backed No | 48c | 29.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…3f86backed Yes | 54c | 26.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 53cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…d46dbacked No | 58c | 26.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…9b64backed Yes | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Yes | 55c | 23.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 78c | 22.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 49c | 21.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 56c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f619backed Yes | 56c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 58c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Yes | 54c | 18.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.