TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,077

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,798 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Under25c2,628$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.1575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over66c2,145$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.336761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.983740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under43c1,763$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76064043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Under31c1,704$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.414447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf63a…90e6backed Under32c1,499$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.650%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Under34c1,412$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.28448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d4…5f81backed Over37c1,164$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Under1c1,082$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82254%1 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under61c1,067$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.6548141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under19c872.91$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.673,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under61c776.46$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.641546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccb2…b754backed Under42c689.43$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under71c661.44$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.054751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over79c650$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.512952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Under19c500.74$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.142850%14 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over61c488.3$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.444032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under33c479.9$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.372532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe29f…b2f0backed Under8c414.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0780%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x150c…cbb4backed Over54c361.99$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Over29c330.14$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over33c295.12$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.1712635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde44…77fbbacked Over62c289.52$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Over70c280.57$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.171275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under29c267.82$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6328755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over55c251.89$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.055064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over67c250.72$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7411540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under52c225.59$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8120645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Over66c212.43$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.94858.3%28 W · 20 L+8.8wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+49.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Over71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585771.9%41 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under30c191.32$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.712,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over71c189.64$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9917852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over67c183.62$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5929855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04b…3ce0backed Over59c164.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under67c153.6$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1533938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under78c152.95$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Under77c145.83$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9660…ba56backed Over72c136.56$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.241275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5556…3aa6backed Under61c128.57$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under28c124.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9442046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Over72c120.64$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.782860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over25c116.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.131,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under31c113.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.831,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0eb…6d57backed Over44c112.26$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.041546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+52.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfe8…3684backed Over31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+70.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde28…8d20backed Over72c95.59$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.762157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9006…385abacked Over69c95.3$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.543976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over72c90.68$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.971,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over62c89.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.27758.4%45 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over53c86.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4320845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under31c86.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.362532%8 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Over70c83.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.23946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed Over75c71.91$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.846264.5%40 W · 22 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over71c69.32$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.198366.3%55 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Over73c67.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.272835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under31c65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1517247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Under59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.15356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65a…2e83backed Under32c59.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.181643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under37c58.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8543532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over68c57.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4613066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under36c54.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc18…9b6ebacked Over54c54.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.841258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Over54c51.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.952642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2314642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Over71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.56855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over69c49.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4311744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb63a…7637backed Over70c49.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.736369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over51c43.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2339558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Under31c43.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4860%0 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Over59c41.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.964845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53fa…83f9backed Over51c40.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.871050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over70c39.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.971,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Over71c39.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4115048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed Over67c37.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.167365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1455…860fbacked Over56c33.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.531844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Over71c31.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9410657.5%61 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under34c29.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0618644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under34c29.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0611049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under34c29.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0620548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under34c29.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.066842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Under34c29.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.062737%10 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Over51c28.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over69c28.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8213754%74 W · 63 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under41c26.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8222245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Over77c25.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.961376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb2b…1510backed Under61c24.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb82b…bb76backed Over42c23.68$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.632213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-68.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Over72c20.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.745966.1%39 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…0c7cbacked Over80c19.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dcb…9fdcbacked Over68c17.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf16…b409backed Over63c16.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.161450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab90…5793backed Over67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.951353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick69cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e24…24fbbacked Over69c14.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.551485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+50.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.