Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9781405557702818996da6515ca0d85eacbafc5aa4ede7717fca82edfa68269
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 40c | 1,956$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.83 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 38c | 1,309$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.39 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 60c | 955.41$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.04 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…2bd0backed No | 38c | 657$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 621.94$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Yes | 59c | 324.81$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Yes | 59c | 324.81$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 37c | 198.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 62c | 190.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 63c | 176.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Yes | 61c | 149.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Yes | 61c | 112.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 59c | 97.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 60c | 96.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 39c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 38c | 81.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…6da4backed Yes | 62c | 78.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 38c | 76.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 59c | 74.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Yes | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 37c | 39.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 63c | 35.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 60c | 35.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…37e6backed Yes | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 63c | 31.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 61c | 25.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.