TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,940
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,940 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Over47c17,725$8,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,330.246465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under52c12,560$6,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,062.913,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Over47c10,640$5,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.816045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under57c10,384$5,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.434351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over48c6,576$3,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,156.4713754%74 W · 63 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5af4…183cbacked Under53c5,501$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.351643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Over50c5,244$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.912548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Over50c5,215$2,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,607.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Under53c4,908$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.574650%23 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc95b…f819backed Under52c3,834$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.781361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Under53c3,771$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.172138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6394…9749backed Over48c3,083$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.052025%5 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-50.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over44c2,929$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.9675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77e8…6854backed Under52c2,639$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Under53c2,131$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.392650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over35c2,128$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.1533938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over42c2,039$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.371,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over11c2,018$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.181233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09d4…5f81backed Over60c1,951$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.09757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under52c1,442$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.167254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Under53c1,373$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.482638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under51c1,297$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.62015%3 W · 17 L-6.7wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c991.23$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.6269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under62c905.53$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.464751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under50c843.61$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.4164043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a33…6410backed Under61c805.11$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over44c785.58$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.381,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over49c780.53$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.4929855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over7c723.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6910549.5%52 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under49c706.25$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.242,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under50c606.5$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.257443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under52c592.21$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.2649647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7066…50e5backed Over74c502.31$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.591963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…036ebacked Over38c499.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over50c493.9$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.12138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over63c485.38$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7948141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under52c477.85$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.3428755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under56c469.85$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.735145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over25c406.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4412635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under50c397.83$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.913946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1b…09aebacked Over80c370.5$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under52c364.59$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Under54c361.99$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.552250%11 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over42c310.55$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4312832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over40c305$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1234619.6%9 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c293.58$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.171,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Over54c291.66$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.637646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under52c229.48$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.541,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cca…08a9backed Over41c199.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+63.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc041…a87bbacked Under54c180.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.83580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2df0…0bcfbacked Under56c173.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa920…ccfdbacked Under59c165.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over44c144.96$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.786541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Over48c133.21$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.943262.5%20 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under61c126.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.595064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over44c122.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7443532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623a…5144backed Under37c104.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over59c99.19$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5210648.1%51 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3e…4d47backed Over71c98.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.761758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over43c97.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.556758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f09…9d7fbacked Under62c94.57$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65f4…5222backed Under55c94.35$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.371457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb844…8cf6backed Over46c93.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.982035%7 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over49c92.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9516056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e12…ce01backed Over46c83.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under62c68.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8920645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6733…acb9backed Over48c67.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+57.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf689…3e3fbacked Over48c64.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.043243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over47c61.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.069838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308647.7%41 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over18c58.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.767262.5%45 W · 27 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over42c57.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.135339.6%21 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Over32c57.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.495255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a0…aee2backed Under53c55.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-51.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb541…1852backed Over46c53.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e95…0fefbacked Over60c48.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.12450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over51c47.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2711635.3%41 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over31c46.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3811744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over42c45.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd577…c012backed Over42c45.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1105…09d0backed Under53c39.69$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.657378.1%57 W · 16 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+13.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fde…026ebacked Over50c38.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f5…3047backed Over50c38.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.48863.6%56 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Under50c37.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.654951%25 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under51c37.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0921051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over49c34.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.126241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd25c…fe19backed Over48c30.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.531145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2206…0fe2backed Over48c30.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over48c29.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.978252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8390…3773backed Over57c25.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Under53c19.43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.232040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bfe…0741backed Under55c19.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.743243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under69c18.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.711070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over78c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.713139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.