Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2147da41d963ee5f5412f9ba9232fc42071cb82dcc09a022964f0945cf76039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Augsburgof Bayer 04 Leverkusen, FC Augsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf57e…bbd6backed FC Augsburg | 58c | 4,226$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.53 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Augsburg | 68c | 3,551$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 34c | 3,451$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.63 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked FC Augsburg | 52c | 2,800$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.99 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 2,309$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.19 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 33c | 1,615$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 999.98$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 943.4$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked FC Augsburg | 53c | 916.79$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.89 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 40c | 878.21$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 783.12$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed FC Augsburg | 54c | 469.78$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.1 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked FC Augsburg | 54c | 469.78$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.1 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 42c | 420.7$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 406.9$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.31 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 406.9$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.31 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 45c | 388.79$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.96 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff3…7737backed FC Augsburg | 55c | 371.42$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 358.46$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 290.57$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Augsburg | 53c | 233.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed FC Augsburg | 38c | 196.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed FC Augsburg | 55c | 194.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 26c | 191.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 36c | 150.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…3173backed FC Augsburg | 77c | 148.57$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed FC Augsburg | 49c | 139.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed FC Augsburg | 53c | 135.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 51c | 125.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed FC Augsburg | 53c | 107.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked FC Augsburg | 55c | 106.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 33c | 101.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 27c | 97.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Augsburg | 66c | 91.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96f…0cd0backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 70.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 33c | 70.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…129abacked FC Augsburg | 70c | 68.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…8adcbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed FC Augsburg | 52c | 59.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Augsburg | 63c | 55.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 46c | 53.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 45c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…6c60backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 51.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 27c | 50.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed FC Augsburg | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 49c | 49.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked FC Augsburg | 76c | 45.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 44c | 44.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked FC Augsburg | 56c | 43.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 60c | 43.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 40.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 32c | 39.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 45c | 38.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed FC Augsburg | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked FC Augsburg | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked FC Augsburg | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed FC Augsburg | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed FC Augsburg | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 57c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.