Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa16d31ed094c2d8fcf1b857dcf6a7dea800d58ebfb389233d916944922cfbed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 7,680$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 17c | 3,720$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.47 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 2,132$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 54c | 1,928$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.01 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 65c | 726.58$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.38 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 719.01$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.59 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…44fbbacked Under | 57c | 700.72$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 27c | 578.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…baa7backed Under | 80c | 518.7$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…036ebacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 28c | 489.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 72c | 461.86$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 9c | 434.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 47c | 399.96$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc2…5dbbbacked Under | 56c | 389.44$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 45c | 234.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Under | 71c | 186.83$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 12c | 175.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 36c | 120.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…5222backed Under | 43c | 111.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 75c | 105.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 73c | 103.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 63c | 93.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 27c | 90.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Under | 52c | 87.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 31c | 77.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 44c | 67.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 73c | 65.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 27c | 55.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 69c | 38.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3924…ee05backed Under | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 35c | 32.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 59c | 32.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 72c | 31.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 73c | 17.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.