Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a930503dc7b6657c0f961de1df5c6202b4f241d242c6a4dfef70b74eb30ce05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cagliari Calcioof Atalanta BC, Cagliari Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Atalanta BC | 5c | 2,120$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atalanta BC | 24c | 1,696$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.81 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Atalanta BC | 30c | 1,602$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.7 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 1,295$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.43 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 934.98$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…454bbacked Atalanta BC | 30c | 482.19$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Atalanta BC | 7c | 423$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 69c | 388.79$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cagliari Calcio | 79c | 366.82$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cagliari Calcio | 69c | 344.97$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Atalanta BC | 4c | 294.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…3708backed Atalanta BC | 31c | 259.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Atalanta BC | 24c | 258.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Atalanta BC | 19c | 243.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecf…9148backed Atalanta BC | 30c | 223.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Atalanta BC | 20c | 219$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atalanta BC | 18c | 209.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Atalanta BC | 15c | 201.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Atalanta BC | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…25e3backed Atalanta BC | 31c | 159.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Cagliari Calcio | 72c | 157.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed Atalanta BC | 31c | 154.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Atalanta BC | 30c | 151.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 141.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…d14fbacked Atalanta BC | 19c | 105.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Atalanta BC | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 148 | 45.3%67 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Atalanta BC | 14c | 93.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Atalanta BC | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Atalanta BC | 31c | 77.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed Atalanta BC | 30c | 76.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Cagliari Calcio | 71c | 55.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Atalanta BC | 31c | 51.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 50.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…d019backed Atalanta BC | 30c | 43.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked Cagliari Calcio | 71c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb599…b499backed Cagliari Calcio | 72c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Cagliari Calcio | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked Cagliari Calcio | 70c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)Atalanta BC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.