Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x123233078147f90b9eb52f8ebb9880a247ebf1fb8beea4eea539cb649d652023
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 56c | 2,137$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51af…8720backed Under | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46cf…42eabacked Over | 50c | 1,972$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…3d52backed Under | 77c | 1,284$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 8c | 913.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 21c | 869.62$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.62 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 34c | 847.41$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.29 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…e7babacked Under | 61c | 801.69$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Under | 65c | 604.95$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Under | 66c | 593.7$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 578.96$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.54 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 577.59$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.23 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 539.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.74 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…f2d6backed Under | 74c | 532.23$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.42 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 47c | 515$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 486.07$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 43c | 417.9$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 50c | 385.92$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 55c | 368.93$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.91 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 71c | 349.82$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb817…bdc7backed Under | 65c | 301.91$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…959fbacked Over | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Over | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5a…7070backed Over | 79c | 197.48$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 36c | 193$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 169.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 15c | 156.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.94 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…f50bbacked Under | 64c | 153.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Over | 13c | 145.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 25c | 145.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 75c | 124.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 80c | 121.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…196abacked Under | 67c | 117.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 12c | 111.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 104.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 80c | 86.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Over | 79c | 84.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 55c | 77.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 66c | 76.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Over | 30c | 70.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 36c | 65.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…5298backed Under | 79c | 62.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 55c | 62.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95c0…f0c5backed Over | 37c | 57.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 56c | 56.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 26c | 49.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…2ff6backed Over | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 32c | 35.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 56c | 34.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 37c | 33.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 49c | 33.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 55c | 33.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Under | 55c | 32.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 80c | 29.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…23f8backed Under | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed Over | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…8160backed Over | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 80c | 20.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…d6d5backed Under | 58c | 19.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…dfe9backed Over | 80c | 18.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 77c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…3092backed Under | 72c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)Atalanta BC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.