Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036af18b387a8ddba698f54581e5ec06edab8f1392f9be71c9e261d72461ae48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atalanta BCof Cagliari Calcio, Atalanta BC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cagliari Calcio | 15c | 8,873$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.4 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cagliari Calcio | 9c | 7,763$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.51 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cagliari Calcio | 15c | 1,613$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.4 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cagliari Calcio | 14c | 1,469$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.86 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cagliari Calcio | 17c | 783.28$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…3f7bbacked Atalanta BC | 61c | 246.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Cagliari Calcio | 8c | 240.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Cagliari Calcio | 6c | 178.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Cagliari Calcio | 15c | 151.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Cagliari Calcio | 8c | 151.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Cagliari Calcio | 13c | 145.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 129 | 20.2%26 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Cagliari Calcio | 11c | 138.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Cagliari Calcio | 18c | 130.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Atalanta BC | 70c | 105.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 16c | 94.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Atalanta BC | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc6…1cedbacked Cagliari Calcio | 34c | 70.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…a5d3backed Atalanta BC | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 33c | 44.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Atalanta BC | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)Atalanta BC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.