Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f794841e0aa7fbc48840c208f88122b68a31767b2480ce7edb59e8a187e1faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 3c | 7,225$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.78 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed No | 0c | 5,287$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…9c44backed No | 0c | 4,015$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2083…01f2backed No | 1c | 1,254$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 699.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 459.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 11c | 454.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…03f1backed No | 7c | 287.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 12c | 278.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 60c | 258.3$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 213.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 32c | 153.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 124.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 52c | 117.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 43c | 97.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 91.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 64.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791a…ff06backed Yes | 55c | 54.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbee…7b46backed Yes | 48c | 49.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 45.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 63c | 44.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 25c | 42.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 48c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…c8debacked No | 47c | 40.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 39.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 37.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 48c | 33.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed No | 48c | 33.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e6…c6dbbacked Yes | 66c | 30.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 53c | 29.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d2…e592backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…e745backed Yes | 74c | 29.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed No | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…385abacked Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 51c | 24.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…20a8backed Yes | 58c | 23.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 55c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…c88bbacked No | 59c | 20.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…d92fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…cb02backed No | 59c | 18.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed No | 58c | 18.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or higher on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C or below on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.