Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86e7644a38207c18814776de20c125de5e75ddc9942cef1876282c52fa15c8e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3f6…af9dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,582$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,029$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed Yes | 9c | 731.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 40c | 627.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.93 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 440.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 200.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 136.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 68c | 126.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 92.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 90.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…4732backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 84.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 83.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 81.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 72.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 72c | 66.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 33c | 48.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…e67fbacked Yes | 40c | 42.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 41.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 64c | 32.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2636…2716backed No | 80c | 29.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…b581backed No | 68c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed No | 71c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 15.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or higher on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C or below on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.