Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb485c9d841e5900dc7a243c37ebee9499f79c614ae5fd32675cc6707b53aa5b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Kölnof Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 1. FC Köln
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Köln | 72c | 1,305$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.04 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 28c | 895.01$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 27c | 672.88$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 29c | 499.97$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed 1. FC Köln | 71c | 276.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed 1. FC Köln | 67c | 270.05$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 68c | 236.32$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked 1. FC Köln | 72c | 167.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…0163backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 29c | 99.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 46c | 92.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 40c | 91.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked 1. FC Köln | 70c | 86.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed 1. FC Köln | 71c | 78.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed 1. FC Köln | 68c | 71.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked 1. FC Köln | 55c | 68.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 28c | 62.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 60.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 40c | 58.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 30c | 57.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…2bd0backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 28c | 50.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 30c | 47.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed 1. FC Köln | 63c | 29.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed 1. FC Köln | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked 1. FC Köln | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked 1. FC Köln | 72c | 24.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…afb2backed 1. FC Köln | 72c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked 1. FC Köln | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed 1. FC Köln | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked 1. FC Köln | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.