Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88dc61da05979fbe0e00463b1b92ceb3068bd87c50135a65de98f098fbad3e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 48c | 7,421$3,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,554.15 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 3,931$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 3,235$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 3,082$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.59 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Under | 1c | 2,174$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 61c | 1,599$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.48 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…e885backed Under | 44c | 924.47$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 892.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.92 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 64c | 715.12$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.44 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 37c | 598.89$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.32 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…5854backed Over | 62c | 494.46$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 44c | 490.21$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 36c | 487.11$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.67 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 56c | 393$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.23 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 35c | 382.95$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 67c | 373.04$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.66 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 58c | 336.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 298.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 36c | 291.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 38c | 288.84$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.08 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…d1ffbacked Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 61c | 249.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 219.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 64c | 196.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 194.86$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010f…6c1abacked Over | 64c | 192.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 62c | 166.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 57c | 143.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 33c | 138$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 38c | 126.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 62c | 125.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 114.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 57c | 107.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Under | 39c | 92.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 60c | 76.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 56c | 72.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 51c | 67.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8c…1991backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 64c | 50.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…ba11backed Over | 63c | 49.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 40c | 48.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 47.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Over | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 54c | 38.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 34.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 55c | 30.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 65c | 30.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00e…6695backed Over | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 64c | 22.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 53c | 20.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Under | 53c | 19.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 54c | 18.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 57c | 18.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 60c | 17.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.