Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b258e143dcea7f76fab7132c268e9f5874b8ecc6bfaf9dcfb09ef26921c8c29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 1,558$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.93 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed No | 2c | 871.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 41c | 665.79$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.32 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…8320backed Yes | 65c | 600.96$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 35c | 399.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 45c | 386.74$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.6 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 65c | 376.61$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.86 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 45c | 334.74$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.47 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 57c | 310$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.3 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e5…6f7abacked Yes | 65c | 301.23$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 36c | 299.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 68c | 297.08$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Yes | 61c | 240.15$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…8fc6backed Yes | 47c | 204.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 195.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 36c | 178.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 54c | 156.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 57c | 148.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 36c | 105.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 75c | 102.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…3154backed Yes | 64c | 82.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…534ebacked Yes | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…f064backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked No | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 44c | 53.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Yes | 38c | 53.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 38c | 51.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Yes | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x806a…62d7backed Yes | 62c | 50.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 45c | 40.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 35c | 33.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…4041backed Yes | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 35c | 29.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 49c | 29.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…9fbcbacked Yes | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…b082backed Yes | 63c | 17.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.