Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0dbcf3cbac0b89967dc8cd92f443154315104d84463f41fa05ff3094f7d2e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 2,322$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 32c | 2,166$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.38 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 18c | 1,135$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.01 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 73c | 669.5$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 7c | 473.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 71c | 368$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 347.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 79c | 296.22$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 283.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 19c | 226.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 65c | 127.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 76c | 98.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 80c | 95.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…ba11backed Over | 74c | 87.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 77c | 65.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 23c | 54.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Under | 28c | 43.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…8984backed Over | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 66c | 21.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 74c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.