Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6ea1b88d74d71bce3cdb596eaf9a8a9d0e43a18f7d3b960598f312cea1cdd87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,029$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed No | 14c | 436.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…4c52backed No | 47c | 426.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 62c | 399.23$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed Yes | 75c | 370.89$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 54c | 299.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.82 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 74c | 275.87$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 243.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 44c | 230.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 44c | 215.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.33 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 199.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 44c | 192.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1665…7902backed No | 57c | 175.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 19c | 174.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 160.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 40c | 139.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 53c | 107.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 71c | 105.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 34c | 104.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 96.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 56c | 91.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked No | 18c | 85.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 82.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 40c | 80.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 55.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 20c | 53.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 45c | 39.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 39c | 36.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 60c | 36.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 51c | 28.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 66c | 27.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 70c | 24.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…ab26backed Yes | 48c | 23.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 73c | 22.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 66c | 15.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.