Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c66a7f7e705b18d78027a70219518eef362e12f902810b3063ac3db6f6f2966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 66c | 5,900$3,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.3 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 66c | 5,000$3,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.51 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 40c | 4,831$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.5 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 49c | 3,839$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.23 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 50c | 3,504$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 35c | 2,971$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.03 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 61c | 2,826$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.81 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 41c | 2,567$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.3 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 32c | 2,384$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.31 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 49c | 2,300$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.99 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,105$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.8 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 41c | 2,077$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.8 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 38c | 1,991$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.33 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 56c | 1,979$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.88 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,790$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.24 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,782$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.33 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 1,749$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.64 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 57c | 1,706$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.9 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 41c | 1,611$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.82 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,525$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.02 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 33c | 1,515$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.46 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 65c | 1,476$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.79 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 57c | 1,259$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.02 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,213$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.82 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 1,003$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.3 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 926.3$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.74 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 26c | 902.35$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.54 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 16c | 860.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 45c | 852.04$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.74 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 57c | 790.23$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.89 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 789.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea09…3a5ebacked Yes | 46c | 759.05$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 69c | 742.04$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.03 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 37c | 714.06$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 60c | 702$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.08 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 52c | 685.44$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.01 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35dd…75f3backed Yes | 46c | 684.06$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 54c | 677.75$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.24 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 668.61$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.36 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 34c | 624.97$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.24 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 41c | 600.38$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 61c | 599.99$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 11c | 599.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 583.62$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.33 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes | 52c | 572.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…c181backed Yes | 32c | 532.07$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.81 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 15c | 525.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed Yes | 40c | 524.57$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.83 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 57c | 516.38$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.52 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 512.92$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.51 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 505.87$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.38 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 55c | 444.78$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.51 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked No | 57c | 444.64$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 46c | 439.57$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.2 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 60c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 64c | 399.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 37c | 392.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 390.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 57c | 377.5$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed No | 51c | 375$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 64c | 369.64$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.71 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 52c | 363.93$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.93 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 46c | 349.75$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.28 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 32c | 336.87$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 331.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ffe1backed Yes | 31c | 325.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 56c | 323.68$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.53 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…183bbacked Yes | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e8…5e90backed Yes | 28c | 317.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 57c | 305.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.74 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 286.54$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.55 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2101…29cebacked Yes | 51c | 283.1$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 47c | 273.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 53c | 252.17$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 43c | 237$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 45c | 223.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked Yes | 42c | 221.69$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 32c | 220$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 11c | 202.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 31c | 202.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked No | 49c | 202$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…b9edbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…9f53backed No | 80c | 180$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 40c | 174.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…f567backed Yes | 39c | 173.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 41c | 170.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 71c | 156.34$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked No | 69c | 156.21$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 55c | 146.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 141.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 28c | 140.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed Yes | 52c | 139.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.