Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce6178ddb120ff44ce2056714350f426a88a447c2066d7338bbff32d1447dec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $368,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $283,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,276$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 9c | 16,601$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.91 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 15,242$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.51 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 9c | 13,394$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.48 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 3c | 10,478$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.34 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 6c | 10,310$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.04 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 10,272$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 1c | 6,555$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,968$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.96 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 5,183$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.56 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 3c | 5,076$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 1c | 4,669$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 4c | 4,353$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,271$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 1c | 4,072$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,773$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 4c | 3,430$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…4bf0backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 181 | 7.7%14 W · 167 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 7c | 2,835$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.58 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 28c | 2,672$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.74 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 7c | 2,485$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.39 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 15c | 2,297$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.43 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,165$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 5c | 2,003$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 1,770$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 16c | 1,765$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.26 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 1c | 1,744$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,674$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 6c | 1,607$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 9c | 1,600$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,564$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.69 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 1,550$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 1,526$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,430$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,391$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.23 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…134dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,368$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 21c | 1,340$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.51 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,326$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 1c | 1,322$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed Yes | 40c | 1,263$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 10c | 1,169$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 1,151$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,085$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 2c | 1,049$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…44e0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 926.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 923.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 916.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 5c | 870.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986d…b351backed Yes | 5c | 863.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 5c | 835.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 6c | 799.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 15c | 753.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…d808backed Yes | 3c | 719.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 14c | 700$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 3c | 683.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes | 7c | 644.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 7c | 630.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 16c | 616$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 15c | 607.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 5c | 604.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 3c | 597.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 6c | 573.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 5c | 533$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 19c | 518.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 485.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 8c | 454.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 12c | 424.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 30c | 363.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 3c | 359.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 5c | 342.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 14c | 329.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 5c | 326.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 5c | 322.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 21c | 316.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 25c | 303.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Yes | 15c | 270.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…bc67backed Yes | 9c | 220.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 6c | 219.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd693…dc76backed Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 60c | 146.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…33a2backed Yes | 14c | 142.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 32c | 139$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…57f2backed Yes | 9c | 138.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 72c | 138.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 17c | 130.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 129.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 14c | 118.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 11c | 104.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.