TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$248,992

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes38c16,667$6,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,315.818616.1%30 W · 156 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes66c9,070$5,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.8666222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes46c8,619$3,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,670.2822325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes10c7,074$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,331.7163021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No23c6,676$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.0520857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes33c6,091$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,092.7756329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes11c5,940$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,292.1616122.4%36 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No3c5,075$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8762539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes37c4,471$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,831.2516941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes54c3,989$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.5853222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes7c3,798$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,546.7512421.8%27 W · 97 L+11.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+49.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes13c3,739$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,271.811,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No5c3,703$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7512528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes37c3,400$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.4711932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes29c3,337$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.1715929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No24c3,337$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.285944.1%26 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No40c3,303$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.0540519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No19c3,013$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.9518949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes31c2,689$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.885345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed No77c2,677$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,056.3410043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes5c2,565$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.755925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No6c2,533$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3514037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No17c2,517$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.2599410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes19c2,198$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.2827417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No55c2,121$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.5610556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No10c2,105$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8615844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes42c2,074$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.4843719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No34c1,819$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.4916750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes32c1,791$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.3414751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes59c1,685$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.5410746.7%50 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes7c1,603$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.871,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5381…1ec5backed No31c1,520$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.055545.5%25 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No4c1,507$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.591999%18 W · 181 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+174.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes18c1,500$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.3570616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes66c1,468$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.0976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes9c1,456$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.4317335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes16c1,340$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.2187917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes30c1,321$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.7823222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,302$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.842,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes49c1,176$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.0712542.4%53 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No10c1,127$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3410216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No28c1,033$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.7110151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes11c1,000$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.3439723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes5c999.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.9928016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No38c963$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.3519053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes7c931.72$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.4457420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes5c881.05$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.0510125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes21c818.64$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.1234425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No17c783.61$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7431242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes34c760.71$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.988332.5%27 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c758$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.4230854.9%169 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes11c712.95$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.6887618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes16c698.58$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.533724.3%9 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-24.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No69c680.94$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8511558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed No2c674.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.053010%3 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-73.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes80c655.9$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1912646%58 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed No14c655.43$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1929227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes52c630.16$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.7250828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No35c628.91$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.9921732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes13c599.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.995437%20 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes12c599.97$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.7879711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes37c592.51$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.133422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes8c575.7$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.7732917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No5c561.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7227024.4%66 W · 204 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes57c536.93$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7913430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b0a…0190backed No16c515.82$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.657820.5%16 W · 62 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes48c506.99$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.8616741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18012932.6%42 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd527…cb8abacked Yes15c478.63$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.821010%1 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No4c475.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5315221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No12c458.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5238648.2%186 W · 200 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes28c449.98$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.791,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes11c443.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.0410510.5%11 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3678…6459backed Yes44c412.73$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.73862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes6c411.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.5665311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes71c410.62$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8512542.4%53 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x868a…61a6backed Yes16c407.5$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.851915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes3c400$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3891008%8 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No30c398.52$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.467042.9%30 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28ef…ffe1backed Yes77c387.93$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes13c378.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.1311847.5%56 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes41c374.02$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.4142424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No10c368.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1410143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e07…0439backed Yes15c346$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.641822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes28c346$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.9320735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes39c338.87$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20611643.1%50 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No25c294$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.518253.7%44 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No21c287.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8959225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed Yes68c287$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.696350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes7c283$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.225588.2%46 W · 512 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed No10c277.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710543.8%46 W · 59 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes67c272.5$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.926940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes79c257.85$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.623560%21 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes8c244.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1610146.5%47 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes11c234.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.2110629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1585…7379backed Yes7c204.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,251.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed No11c204.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235014%7 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes20c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16130317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked No22c199.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.128034.3%96 W · 184 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes37c199.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8420723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.