Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x239ff1ca9acb924a1c9ddeebaac801675c42dd1a5b8b2e1448d36c2d728a86d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 52c | 8,413$4,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,411.43 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 42c | 7,009$2,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910.83 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 50c | 5,183$2,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.93 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 48c | 5,012$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.29 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 69c | 3,816$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.64 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 54c | 3,788$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.05 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 62c | 2,678$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.61 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 57c | 2,579$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.08 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 46c | 2,567$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.56 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 49c | 2,500$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.29 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 59c | 2,360$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.92 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 38c | 2,216$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.32 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 48c | 2,203$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.96 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,160$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.08 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 51c | 2,074$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 51c | 1,783$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.54 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 40c | 1,777$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.26 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 1,749$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.82 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 64c | 1,721$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.46 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…7d38backed Yes | 59c | 1,705$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 40c | 1,689$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.76 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 1,585$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.26 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 37c | 1,522$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.02 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 1,505$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.03 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed No | 70c | 1,452$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 49c | 1,417$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.1 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 41c | 1,403$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.8 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,280$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.52 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 1,175$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.83 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 47c | 1,163$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.42 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 27c | 1,120$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.45 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 46c | 1,102$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.58 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.49 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 34c | 1,023$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.43 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 50c | 982.48$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.07 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 15c | 978$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.3 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 856.17$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.81 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 61c | 819$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.71 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 44c | 793.88$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.74 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 38c | 784.42$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.34 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 775$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.72 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 28c | 763.82$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.36 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 25c | 761$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.85 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 734.4$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.77 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 30c | 706.32$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.42 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 17c | 704.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.04 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 18c | 673.63$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35dd…75f3backed Yes | 61c | 629.75$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 72c | 607.63$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.72 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked Yes | 26c | 555.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.31 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 51c | 554$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 47c | 550.42$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.51 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 549.95$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.81 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 28c | 479.95$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.78 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 22c | 469.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 54c | 427.57$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 50c | 408.43$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.03 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 403.79$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.13 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 49c | 390.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.44 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 47c | 384.59$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.07 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 61c | 377.69$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b5…bb3fbacked Yes | 19c | 372.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 49c | 365.45$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.47 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 47c | 364.32$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.09 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 40c | 359$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.44 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 48c | 348.67$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 50c | 327.48$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.76 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 44c | 326.86$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…7287backed Yes | 61c | 326.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 42c | 322.42$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.39 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 72c | 300$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 65c | 285$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.05 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 60c | 271.68$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.14 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 15c | 259.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.14 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…d422backed Yes | 65c | 247.16$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 51c | 240.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.72 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 54c | 236.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986d…b351backed Yes | 52c | 231.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…28d9backed Yes | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ffe1backed Yes | 23c | 221.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 9c | 218.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 11c | 215$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.35 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…c0cebacked No | 71c | 209.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 50c | 204.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 200.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 199$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 56c | 195.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 195$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 74c | 189.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.39 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…8b8abacked Yes | 59c | 179.72$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 76c | 173.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 442 | 27.4%121 W · 321 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 15c | 161.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 54c | 161.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 50c | 160.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 46c | 153$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.