Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77747bfe7de0d327b48daf827e00920e3714488c32067ef95d31028155b2999c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 76c | 951.09$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.79 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 75c | 899.51$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 20c | 505.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 42c | 466.68$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 66c | 442.59$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 35c | 426.16$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.39 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 28c | 419.89$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 80c | 415.42$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…a28ebacked No | 4c | 391.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 78c | 384.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 29c | 355.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 332.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 313.35$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 61c | 306.13$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 286.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f2…7395backed No | 26c | 249.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed No | 43c | 248.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 61c | 236.66$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 60c | 210.49$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61c…a03ebacked Yes | 63c | 210$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 54c | 207.78$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 69c | 188.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 23c | 185$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 72c | 166.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes | 70c | 153.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c17bbacked No | 36c | 141.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 75c | 133.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 13c | 132.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked Yes | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 77c | 128.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 125.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 25c | 120.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 18c | 120.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed No | 16c | 119.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 79c | 116.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 61c | 114.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 105.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 66c | 104.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked No | 24c | 104.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed No | 24c | 103.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 60c | 100.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 61c | 98.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 59c | 96.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…1119backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked No | 30c | 90.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed No | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 50c | 87.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…e55bbacked No | 17c | 85.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7034backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked No | 33c | 77.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 63c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 78c | 75.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…4a8bbacked Yes | 58c | 71.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 58c | 70.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…2bb0backed No | 45c | 66.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 46c | 64.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 40c | 57.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed No | 33c | 55.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 54.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 31c | 54.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 52c | 53.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 27c | 51.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 21c | 50.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 43c | 49.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 56c | 49.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 69c | 43.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 58c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…2356backed No | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb480…fac2backed Yes | 63c | 39.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 60c | 36.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 36.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 56c | 35.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…8fb3backed No | 46c | 35.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb434…0ca8backed No | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9284…3c42backed Yes | 58c | 34.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes | 53c | 34.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39f1…ebd1backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 58c | 33.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…282fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.