TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,263
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,263 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes76c951.09$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.796538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes75c899.51$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.4495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No20c505.22$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No42c466.68$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.361,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes66c442.59$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.711,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No35c426.16$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3963656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No28c419.89$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1217243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes80c415.42$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c75…a28ebacked No4c391.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.422343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes78c384.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No29c355.08$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6529922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No8c332.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.499262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No45c313.35$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.172,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes61c306.13$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6576924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No38c286.68$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9384759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f2…7395backed No26c249.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.02650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf82…e079backed No43c248.43$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.83844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes61c236.66$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.385540%22 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes60c210.49$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4910531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb61c…a03ebacked Yes63c210$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+45.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes54c207.78$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes69c188.7$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.541,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d6…54e8backed No23c185$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.651631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-54.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes72c166.91$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0520546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes70c153.73$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.976656.1%37 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51de…c17bbacked No36c141.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes73c137$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1192…634cbacked Yes75c133.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.874736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No13c132.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked Yes73c130$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes77c128.53$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5610542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No15c125.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.461,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No25c120.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.91,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No18c120.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xfc81…e072backed No16c119.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.111850%9 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+44.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes79c116.28$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1947834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes61c114.6$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.618035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No42c105.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.942,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes66c104.44$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.511,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked No24c104.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfde…4006backed No24c103.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.74714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes60c100.2$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.211646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4126236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2583332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3921448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes61c98.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8211546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes59c96.9$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.694852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1391…1119backed Yes55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6622…e28bbacked No30c90.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.893951.3%20 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed No14c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes50c87.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6211436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf340…e55bbacked No17c85.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0383…7034backed Yes60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes79c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.610956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked No33c77.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.384850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes63c77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4910650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes78c75.92$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.089529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40c9…4a8bbacked Yes58c71.6$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.031442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes58c70.82$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.541,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes65c69.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.232737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05d7…2bb0backed No45c66.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes46c64.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.768239%32 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No40c57.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.63,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65da…69d2backed No33c55.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.32425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No53c54.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.267,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No31c54.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6434457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0646…3d3dbacked No52c53.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.999363.4%59 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed No27c51.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1655919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No21c50.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed No24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125016%8 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes61c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed Yes44c49.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes43c49.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5316036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes56c49.19$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.493432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes56c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f9…4425backed No45c44.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.967266.7%48 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes69c43.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1720…2e74backed Yes58c42.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.134047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6f…2356backed No40c41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb480…fac2backed Yes63c39.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.811225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-47.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes60c36.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9411436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0967…0c60backed No51c36.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5518860.1%113 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab0a…36b1backed Yes56c35.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.553342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72b1…8fb3backed No46c35.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb434…0ca8backed No57c35.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9284…3c42backed Yes58c34.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes53c34.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.961729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes59c33.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No43c33.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4515818.4%29 W · 129 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39f1…ebd1backed Yes60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d64…4a36backed Yes60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.333050%15 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed Yes58c33.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.845560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes60c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.214338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52c…282fbacked Yes65c30.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.921844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7711855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.