Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00d16ebdefd60fc7da5fbab7111e6d4bbb4d008b40a0ef2e4182676009b4bc89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,890$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,657$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.04 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,179$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,618$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 2c | 1,421$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,313$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…7df6backed Yes | 4c | 1,230$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 7c | 1,198$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 1c | 1,155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 6c | 1,078$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 1,073$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 853.46$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 9c | 823.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…8712backed Yes | 33c | 799.24$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 5c | 735.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 615.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 14c | 602.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…9f35backed Yes | 12c | 399.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 8c | 298.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 296.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 287.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 15c | 252.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 4c | 249.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 216.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 8c | 201.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 8c | 195$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 12c | 179.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4492…8b9abacked Yes | 12c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 13c | 164$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe03e…2365backed Yes | 12c | 159.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 8c | 153.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 20c | 129.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…3976backed Yes | 8c | 125.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f8…837abacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 25c | 121.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 19c | 112.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…67f5backed Yes | 20c | 101.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 19c | 65.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…06adbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.