Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df433b59ba81cd569d0693657f7253c5e01bd13e0aeb32bd23a16d6f407c9e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 18c | 10,321$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,511.77 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked No | 0c | 5,871$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 5,042$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,660.94 | 131 | 19.8%26 W · 105 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 7c | 4,301$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,019.36 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,346$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.29 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 1,842$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.17 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…7e35backed Yes | 15c | 1,680$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.87 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 18c | 1,555$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.35 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 11c | 1,372$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.59 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,368$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.37 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,155$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 7c | 1,045$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.35 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.43 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 815.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.87 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 10c | 749.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.43 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 19c | 618.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.82 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 597.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.39 | 105 | 14.3%15 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…bfd2backed Yes | 11c | 589.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.74 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 25c | 554.59$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 522.26$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.94 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 23c | 467.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.35 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 437$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.68 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 10c | 428.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.39 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 78c | 402.26$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.92 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 46c | 386.49$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.49 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 349.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.08 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 33c | 346.39$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.92 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 61c | 331.77$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 17c | 316.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.41 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 14c | 309.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.29 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…b3c5backed Yes | 8c | 300.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.71 | 88 | 19.3%17 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes | 4c | 298.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.45 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 275.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.81 | 175 | 6.9%12 W · 163 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 260.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.02 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 243$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…09c7backed Yes | 29c | 227$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.27 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…c25dbacked Yes | 7c | 221.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 10c | 215.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.35 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 213.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.94 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 204.79$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.16 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd376…231dbacked Yes | 30c | 202.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.54 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 198.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.31 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 8c | 192.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…1218backed Yes | 8c | 189.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 11c | 187.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.61 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 17c | 175.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 45c | 165.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 39c | 160$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 7c | 155.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.24 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 65c | 151.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 8c | 144.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 9c | 129$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.28 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 79c | 125.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 67c | 123$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 18c | 117.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 77c | 116.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 9c | 115.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 112.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 22c | 101.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 44c | 98.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 96.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…5521backed Yes | 12c | 89.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +713.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 62c | 61.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 40c | 50.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 57c | 39.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 78c | 30.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc9…29ffbacked Yes | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 20.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.