TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,651
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,982

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,651 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes1c6,299$35 inLost-$34.5813119.8%26 W · 105 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c3,080$57 inLost-$57.182,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes1c2,693$26 inLost-$26.0332716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes4c912.7$34 inLost-$34.2721222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes5c901.14$42 inLost-$41.7327820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c758.1$19 inLost-$19.392,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes4c677.39$24 inLost-$23.7442424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d32…b3c5backed Yes4c394.85$16 inLost-$15.678819.3%17 W · 71 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes6c360$20 inLost-$20.165925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes3c308.12$10 inLost-$10.11711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost-$11.63116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+68.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes8c179.05$14 inLost-$14.1413511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.