TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,216 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes5c4,459$230 inLost-$230.1613119.8%26 W · 105 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes4c4,072$147 inLost-$146.612,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes2c1,412$29 inLost-$29.2732716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,194$54 inLost-$54.412,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes10c1,160$119 inLost-$119.4270616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes6c913.89$53 inLost-$52.8742424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes5c870.94$46 inLost-$46.115925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c635.38$52 inLost-$52.12175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed Yes10c600$61 inLost-$60.67328.8%21 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+119.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes4c478.22$19 inLost-$19.1862713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d32…b3c5backed Yes4c421.31$15 inLost-$15.448819.3%17 W · 71 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes10c420.31$41 inLost-$40.7416945%76 W · 93 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes11c293$33 inLost-$33.410514.3%15 W · 90 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes8c281.5$21 inLost-$21.274420.5%9 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes10c232.94$23 inLost-$22.628912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes11c155$18 inLost-$17.5816013.1%21 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes11c101.08$11 inLost-$11.134515.9%55 W · 290 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e07…0439backed Yes11c100$11 inLost-$10.71822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…67b8backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$109724.7%24 W · 73 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.