TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,457 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes0c4,800$16 inLost-$15.525617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c3,011$254 inLost-$253.962,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes1c2,700$15 inLost-$14.532615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes7c2,678$180 inLost-$179.8813119.8%26 W · 105 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes14c1,603$231 inLost-$230.8470616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes11c1,157$122 inLost-$121.9962713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes10c870.95$85 inLost-$84.625925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes12c589.87$72 inLost-$71.6837830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c532.79$45 inLost-$44.752,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72be…67b8backed Yes14c520.2$73 inLost-$73.069724.7%24 W · 73 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes10c370.88$36 inLost-$36.4810514.3%15 W · 90 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes10c363.93$37 inLost-$36.64918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes8c346.09$28 inLost-$28.144420.5%9 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c313.32$22 inLost-$22.47175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes15c276.76$42 inLost-$41.5716013.1%21 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes11c207.59$22 inLost-$22.121756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb65…8a30backed Yes16c192.14$30 inLost-$301414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db0…8c18backed No73c137.68$100 inWon+$37.594557.8%26 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c52…7e35backed Yes13c118.41$16 inLost-$15.9378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No78c100.01$78 inWon+$22.2138848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes13c100$13 inLost-$1320532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes14c81.69$12 inLost-$11.728912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes22c80.07$18 inLost-$1847032.6%153 W · 317 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x618a…ae0ebacked Yes18c77.69$14 inLost-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes16c73.48$12 inLost-$11.8328211%31 W · 251 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes27c56.83$16 inLost-$15.548253.7%44 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed No76c47.02$36 inWon+$11.357252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e39…b974backed No76c39.63$30 inWon+$9.631758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No78c30$23 inWon+$6.6614864.9%96 W · 52 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.