TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,501
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,501 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes3c12,596$328 inLost-$328.3419215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes0c7,000$11 inLost-$111116.3%7 W · 104 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c6,576$121 inLost-$120.741,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes4c5,713$209 inLost-$209.0713119.8%26 W · 105 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes4c4,347$182 inLost-$181.522,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes5c3,867$200 inLost-$200.2342424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes3c3,559$101 inLost-$100.8321222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes7c2,408$181 inLost-$180.5627820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c2,348$19 inLost-$18.825535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes2c1,935$44 inLost-$44.08981%1 W · 97 L-0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,632$55 inLost-$55.32,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes1c1,008$13 inLost-$13.4432716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost-$2015312.4%19 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes3c995.93$28 inLost-$28.1417917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes2c933.79$21 inLost-$21.232729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes3c875.99$28 inLost-$27.6462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes3c850.82$22 inLost-$22.12160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes1c742.83$11 inLost-$10.9932613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes2c707.76$14 inLost-$13.894420.5%9 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x240d…bfd2backed Yes3c706.13$21 inLost-$21.085630.4%17 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes6c690.94$41 inLost-$41.179018.9%17 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes4c609.14$26 inLost-$2684616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes3c555.97$17 inLost-$17.4976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes2c450.24$10 inLost-$10.365598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes7c392.78$27 inLost-$26.5416945%76 W · 93 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes8c362.6$29 inLost-$28.955925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c350$26 inLost-$25.551756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes5c304$16 inLost-$16.1824524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d32…b3c5backed Yes6c286.93$18 inLost-$18.418819.3%17 W · 71 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes7c250$17 inLost-$16.51650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes8c239.59$19 inLost-$18.5516013.1%21 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost-$13.63116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+68.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed Yes7c187$14 inLost-$13.657328.8%21 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+119.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes8c184.84$16 inLost-$15.584918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes10c178.77$19 inLost-$18.614913.4%20 W · 129 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked Yes10c121.45$12 inLost-$121625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.