Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf74c587cc342dae2654666e68fa0b6ee89bd252a74d50908705dac987ca5b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,013$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 4,824$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.36 | 131 | 19.8%26 W · 105 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,964$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 2,250$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.99 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 12c | 2,048$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.55 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 1,261$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…67b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,190$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 9c | 870.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 750.13$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 2c | 528.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 20c | 487.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…1218backed Yes | 12c | 386.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes | 9c | 313.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes | 7c | 280.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 10c | 279.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 105 | 14.3%15 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes | 15c | 209.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 204$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 199.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 175 | 6.9%12 W · 163 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 6c | 198.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…318fbacked Yes | 6c | 183.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 111 | 14.4%16 W · 95 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…1540backed Yes | 6c | 175.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 14c | 148.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 14c | 135.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 16c | 126.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 25c | 117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 15c | 113.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 78c | 102.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…7273backed Yes | 15c | 100.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 21c | 97.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 65.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e39…b974backed No | 79c | 38.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.