TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes42c9,572$4,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,065.7719215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes15c7,269$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.0413119.8%26 W · 105 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes4c5,443$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.41,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes2c3,782$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.331624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes39c3,540$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3803321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c1,751$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.842,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes76c1,578$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.485345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,541$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.832,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes11c1,450$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.542424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes15c1,256$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9117917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes7c1,234$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.655925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes47c1,208$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.470616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes50c1,042$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.524524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes3c999.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015312.4%19 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be7…b89fbacked No68c794.88$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes2c785.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0121521.9%47 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No45c589.78$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.1422160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240d…bfd2backed Yes40c574.18$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.095630.4%17 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0670…09c7backed Yes10c570.54$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.952722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes36c552.53$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5576821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked No76c542.93$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6628034.3%96 W · 184 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No60c498.51$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.8514037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes19c454.92$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6862713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c435.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.12175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes14c424.1$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7317824.7%44 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes41c421.16$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5727647.8%132 W · 144 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes8c376.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304723.4%11 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes69c360.64$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8488610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes14c357.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4940719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes6c357$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+68.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed No74c347.58$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0717419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes5c333.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54420.5%9 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No67c326.6$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.0938848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d32…b3c5backed Yes8c299.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.538819.3%17 W · 71 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes44c289.79$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0132613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e09…c25dbacked Yes7c284.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+170.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c279.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.091756.9%12 W · 163 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes60c265.05$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8641230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes34c261.67$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7847032.6%153 W · 317 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No47c256.79$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.993557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes59c250$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7356817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes4c249.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.455535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes7c222.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1510514.3%15 W · 90 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes66c221.06$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4632529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No30c215.66$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8810151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes47c211.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012523.2%29 W · 96 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-3.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes59c197.89$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1443027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10cd…f37bbacked Yes9c197.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc622…e1a4backed Yes11c190.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.945433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No29c175$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5815455.2%85 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No46c168.12$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0614864.9%96 W · 52 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes10c162.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3914913.4%20 W · 129 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes9c159.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No60c155$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5419053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes9c154.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes8c148.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0627820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa48c…5506backed Yes35c127.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No14c125$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.129654.2%52 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes78c124.66$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.858332.5%27 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No76c122.61$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.37371.2%52 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f6…5108backed No41c121.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+92.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No14c116.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1910756.1%60 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed No72c110.43$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.447252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes60c108.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1911847.5%56 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed Yes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.577328.8%21 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+119.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6025617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3758…5c70backed Yes53c99.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.733850%19 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes50c99.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8312548%60 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes49c98.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4811637.1%43 W · 73 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes53c98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No39c97.57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5211558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c3…dd60backed Yes32c94.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes53c85.9$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6634833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes23c77.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9412216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes59c75.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5128723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No42c75.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1820857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes52c66.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2111633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes37c57.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0612646%58 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes54c56.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6712542.4%53 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe14…d255backed Yes62c53.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.443638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes40c51.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410146.5%47 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked No26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes64c48.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9812642.9%54 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes23c47.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes30c45.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.561,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes28c43.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.166030%18 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes38c41.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7710438.5%40 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes39c40.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1613511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f2…e77abacked No59c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c97…be02backed Yes57c38.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes38c35.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2711643.1%50 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…c2d1backed Yes76c33.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5230%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes65c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4121222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f6…d1d3backed No48c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.534257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No67c28.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.363154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes36c28.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810738.3%41 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a7f…6413backed No78c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.081650%8 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7b…1036backed Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No72c20.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.99947.5%47 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf05…33e2backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.