Other European Leagues · resolved market
Estoril Praia vs. CD Tondela: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c05d5ee40d7a4c2311e07eea604ab02f94e75e5eb0e099b526bff7687b4dbff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 2,847$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.15 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 58c | 1,106$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.67 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 999.43$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.63 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed Over | 78c | 739.3$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.54 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…540bbacked Over | 73c | 714$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 681.33$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.46 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…7e22backed Over | 39c | 362.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 59c | 317.47$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.95 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 290.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 57c | 262$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Under | 43c | 195.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 74c | 122.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Over | 61c | 118.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 18c | 117.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…19e9backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Under | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 240 | 30.4%73 W · 167 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 65c | 76.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 35c | 39.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Over | 42c | 35.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 32c | 34.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc22…7e8abacked Over | 46c | 25.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estoril Praia vs. CD Tondela: O/U 4.5this page
- Estoril Praia vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5Over won
- Estoril Praia vs. CD Tondela: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Estoril Praia (-1.5)CD Tondela won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.