TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
JD Gamingof JD Gaming, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$186,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$205,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe100…4d41backed EDward Gaming37c28,970$10,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,662.4113251.5%68 W · 64 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed JD Gaming62c28,044$17,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,654.336248.4%30 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked EDward Gaming41c12,516$5,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,125.881,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed EDward Gaming42c10,032$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,230.241,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked JD Gaming60c9,703$5,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,867.922,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked JD Gaming61c8,779$5,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,422.838438.1%32 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe795…8caebacked JD Gaming69c7,154$4,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.5920354.7%111 W · 92 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked EDward Gaming5c6,797$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.9413040.8%53 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed EDward Gaming47c6,356$2,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,977.166147.5%29 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed JD Gaming57c5,621$3,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.9123547.7%112 W · 123 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed EDward Gaming40c5,253$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.3528746%132 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked EDward Gaming2c5,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed EDward Gaming43c4,672$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00018945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked EDward Gaming45c4,395$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.7633456%187 W · 147 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed JD Gaming53c3,562$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.0535431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed JD Gaming54c3,555$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.5242050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed EDward Gaming42c3,239$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.271,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked JD Gaming62c3,140$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.3641752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed JD Gaming60c3,070$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.9912338.2%47 W · 76 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed EDward Gaming38c2,871$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.731,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2837…e56fbacked EDward Gaming39c2,593$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.564445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29df…8ebcbacked JD Gaming58c2,554$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.3310133.7%34 W · 67 L-11.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked EDward Gaming41c2,482$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.6421848.6%106 W · 112 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked EDward Gaming23c2,300$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5316334.9%22 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed JD Gaming55c2,237$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.681,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed EDward Gaming8c2,224$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.862,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed JD Gaming59c2,040$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.6669041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked EDward Gaming49c1,949$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.1821060%126 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9752…5b36backed JD Gaming59c1,856$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.099267.4%62 W · 30 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d3b…9672backed EDward Gaming36c1,764$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.7750%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x70cb…4be9backed EDward Gaming43c1,755$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed JD Gaming59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.927852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed JD Gaming60c1,630$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.1957947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x545a…e9c2backed JD Gaming66c1,624$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked EDward Gaming1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x794e…4247backed EDward Gaming1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15750%0 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe99a…e9fbbacked EDward Gaming41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6153231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked JD Gaming62c1,500$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.2544751%228 W · 219 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed JD Gaming58c1,443$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.937759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d94…c694backed EDward Gaming42c1,420$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006759.7%40 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked JD Gaming57c1,410$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.4415545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed EDward Gaming24c1,371$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.542840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x863f…4c5bbacked EDward Gaming39c1,360$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.57742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed JD Gaming60c1,342$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.4550845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689d…300fbacked EDward Gaming21c1,270$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed EDward Gaming40c1,266$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.4654353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x777f…82d6backed EDward Gaming39c1,257$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.061643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed JD Gaming76c1,211$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.6185442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed EDward Gaming39c1,206$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.746338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed EDward Gaming14c1,047$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5129927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed EDward Gaming3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510030%30 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked JD Gaming69c1,000$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30629536.9%109 W · 186 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed JD Gaming54c988.05$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.381,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef1a…d048backed EDward Gaming44c909.22$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.0612444.4%55 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked EDward Gaming28c899.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25013543%58 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1891…fd78backed EDward Gaming34c899.98$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.992642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed JD Gaming58c879.23$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.2840232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed JD Gaming61c776.79$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.7986758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked JD Gaming61c776.17$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.2485046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked EDward Gaming43c702.7$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1626645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked JD Gaming57c702.7$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.1619146.1%88 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked JD Gaming57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30111548.7%56 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked EDward Gaming40c686.64$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9824529.8%73 W · 172 L-0.9wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96f8…2560backed JD Gaming60c666.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6737660.9%229 W · 147 L-28.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0b3…b220backed EDward Gaming37c636.61$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.8435850.8%182 W · 176 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked JD Gaming61c608.1$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.672462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed JD Gaming62c604.76$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.8320764.3%133 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked EDward Gaming16c600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9623751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed JD Gaming57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25850547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked JD Gaming69c577.17$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7170162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed JD Gaming66c576.54$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.8931855.7%177 W · 141 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed JD Gaming62c550$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.61,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked JD Gaming79c522.84$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.881,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed JD Gaming59c508.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7720756%116 W · 91 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed JD Gaming62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.130661.1%187 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c96…763fbacked EDward Gaming9c500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444914.3%7 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x096f…5c68backed EDward Gaming31c500$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15321644%95 W · 121 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed EDward Gaming33c500$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1646936.2%25 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…75a8backed EDward Gaming40c499.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.981136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked EDward Gaming41c485.17$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9270752.9%374 W · 333 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed EDward Gaming39c480$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.656139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed EDward Gaming44c445.29$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.011,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe2…2957backed EDward Gaming46c436.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007255.6%40 W · 32 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b14…e02abacked JD Gaming50c410.62$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.311070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…6aaabacked EDward Gaming20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1770%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe532…b5c7backed JD Gaming60c387$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid+177.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x968f…2a1fbacked JD Gaming58c341.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9222646.5%105 W · 121 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked JD Gaming77c340$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.26732.8%22 W · 45 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e8e…00abbacked EDward Gaming44c337.66$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2910342.7%44 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb616…b9a1backed EDward Gaming42c333.06$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14027638.4%106 W · 170 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25e…39aabacked JD Gaming60c300$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1424570.6%173 W · 72 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed EDward Gaming36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10815846.2%73 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f0…3803backed EDward Gaming20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0f…45c3backed EDward Gaming43c274.66$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed EDward Gaming39c260$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.444335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed EDward Gaming39c255.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034631.2%108 W · 238 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd185…e40bbacked JD Gaming62c245.64$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.184362.8%27 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed EDward Gaming48c231.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.182934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed EDward Gaming44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10084050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf13a…a600backed EDward Gaming47c215.11$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6920645.6%94 W · 112 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.