TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
EDward Gamingof JD Gaming, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,665 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe100…4d41backed EDward Gaming35c33,663$11,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,736.0813251.5%68 W · 64 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed JD Gaming67c18,356$12,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,361.7510048%48 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed EDward Gaming34c17,412$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,471.931,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed JD Gaming60c17,075$10,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,265.236248.4%30 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed EDward Gaming70c11,543$8,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,510.4681143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed JD Gaming56c9,107$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.721,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked JD Gaming14c7,846$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.06711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed EDward Gaming51c7,645$3,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,738.26147.5%29 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed EDward Gaming44c6,818$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,818.1818945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe795…8caebacked JD Gaming53c6,381$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,411.720354.7%111 W · 92 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked EDward Gaming45c6,259$2,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,448.81,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed JD Gaming49c5,814$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.231036.1%112 W · 198 L-18.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed EDward Gaming51c4,763$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.941,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked JD Gaming72c4,090$2,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,951.167552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked JD Gaming80c3,754$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002763%17 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc153…a179backed EDward Gaming40c3,736$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.342441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed EDward Gaming40c3,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10054353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed JD Gaming65c3,023$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.428746%132 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed EDward Gaming48c2,832$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.911,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked EDward Gaming42c2,810$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.6741752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed JD Gaming53c2,793$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.7250845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed JD Gaming50c2,687$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.2835431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed EDward Gaming60c2,644$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.5942050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed EDward Gaming46c2,583$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.5922654.4%123 W · 103 L+20.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed JD Gaming60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003053.3%16 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed EDward Gaming39c2,128$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.5912338.2%47 W · 76 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed JD Gaming43c2,104$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.846338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked JD Gaming72c2,024$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.2759558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked EDward Gaming53c1,980$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.0233456%187 W · 147 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed JD Gaming46c1,904$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.117759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed JD Gaming59c1,876$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.0311653.4%62 W · 54 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2837…e56fbacked JD Gaming49c1,738$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.24445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed JD Gaming63c1,699$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.127852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked JD Gaming60c1,546$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.8337245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked JD Gaming8c1,534$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.16297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed JD Gaming66c1,513$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.6243151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked EDward Gaming41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88524529.8%73 W · 172 L-0.9wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked JD Gaming57c1,410$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.715545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed JD Gaming51c1,371$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.1985652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed JD Gaming1c1,285$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.853930.8%12 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2439…2e1fbacked EDward Gaming40c1,257$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.126347.6%30 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed JD Gaming37c1,256$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.462,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d94…c694backed EDward Gaming43c1,202$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.216759.7%40 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed JD Gaming12c1,173$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.829927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked JD Gaming65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65021848.6%106 W · 112 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…d3dcbacked JD Gaming57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5703455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked JD Gaming56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56019146.1%88 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed JD Gaming2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed JD Gaming60c998.32$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.991,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed JD Gaming67c986.57$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66142840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked JD Gaming59c964.9$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.2921060%126 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked EDward Gaming37c944.72$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.212,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed EDward Gaming34c918.23$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.594434.1%15 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x545a…e9c2backed JD Gaming62c907.95$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed EDward Gaming43c899.97$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.626139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0f…45c3backed EDward Gaming52c876.83$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.771741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed JD Gaming55c848.72$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8469041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed JD Gaming65c848.64$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.7640232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked EDward Gaming40c841$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.2413543%58 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked EDward Gaming36c829.68$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.148438.1%32 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed EDward Gaming37c805.29$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.0624147.3%114 W · 127 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked JD Gaming56c803.97$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.2270162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked EDward Gaming44c801$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.614131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed JD Gaming4c731.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2423915.9%38 W · 201 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+53.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed JD Gaming71c699.47$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7520756%116 W · 91 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed EDward Gaming37c675.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.1512433.9%42 W · 82 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed EDward Gaming44c659.07$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.2957947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked EDward Gaming31c654.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.5413747.4%65 W · 72 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed EDward Gaming43c613.12$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.172934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked EDward Gaming22c607.14$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.143745.9%17 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed JD Gaming2c600$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed JD Gaming60c600$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36086758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked EDward Gaming20c587.83$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.2617826.4%47 W · 131 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x655c…8fbfbacked JD Gaming68c585.46$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002055%11 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed EDward Gaming42c581$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.831855.7%177 W · 141 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked EDward Gaming48c568.5$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.249741.2%40 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked JD Gaming8c519.67$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2a…6bfebacked EDward Gaming47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26572234.1%246 W · 476 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c96…763fbacked JD Gaming33c499.98$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1644914.3%7 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…82d6backed EDward Gaming44c493.57$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.41643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8e…00abbacked JD Gaming21c483.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010342.7%44 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcbf…1439backed JD Gaming66c416.7$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d3b…9672backed JD Gaming66c410.32$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.8150%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x054d…779cbacked JD Gaming68c410$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe99a…e9fbbacked EDward Gaming40c403.4$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.043231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfabf…2814backed JD Gaming61c400$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2435949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed JD Gaming18c400$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706936.2%25 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked JD Gaming44c344.2$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.099157.1%52 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed JD Gaming70c332.97$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0820764.3%133 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f8…2560backed JD Gaming65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037660.9%229 W · 147 L-28.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed JD Gaming55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16530661.1%187 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9146…7246backed EDward Gaming32c300$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2055536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed EDward Gaming28c300$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21615846.2%73 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked JD Gaming64c298.45$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0170752.9%374 W · 333 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked JD Gaming80c295.64$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.5114150.4%71 W · 70 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked EDward Gaming33c291.96$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.6277949.9%389 W · 390 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x522b…e2a6backed JD Gaming67c279.28$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1862055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed JD Gaming78c257.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015551.6%80 W · 75 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked JD Gaming78c256.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021965.8%144 W · 75 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked EDward Gaming40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503138.7%12 W · 19 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-35.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.