Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b93beadf789265dffddc3b05d876e9759ccb5101c9d4aa8d55867dd39300fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 2,195$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.97 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Spirit Academy | 10c | 2,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.59 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 1,172$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Spirit Academy | 6c | 800.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Spirit Academy | 27c | 752.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Spirit Academy | 8c | 594.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Spirit Academy | 13c | 450$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 352.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 343.65$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1deebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 71c | 305.84$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Spirit Academy | 4c | 296.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…3a44backed Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 296.21$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…92b3backed Spirit Academy | 36c | 266.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 248$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Spirit Academy | 21c | 245.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 75c | 241.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 233.41$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 143.75$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 109.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Spirit Academy | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Spirit Academy | 29c | 74.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…934fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 74.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…9246backed Spirit Academy | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Spirit Academy | 37c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…d041backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 38.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…01afbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 16.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.