Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f4d219b9e78e5a81dd8272340a1ab072aafdd1b7d00321261e5454d784e0c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6eb0…a15cbacked Spirit Academy | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 77c | 1,296$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.63 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 1,159$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.65 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 500.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 411$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.07 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Spirit Academy | 37c | 399.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 225$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Spirit Academy | 33c | 134.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Pipsqueak+4 | 75c | 67.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…3863backed Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 67.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy (BO3) Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.