Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd66bef9f47a75db344f0014d43770db425f4bfa4a06ab678b41f8efeafc7c7e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed No | 0c | 14,591$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,256$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.19 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 36c | 1,066$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.3 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 77c | 1,050$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.08 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 816.38$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 34c | 720.96$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.63 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 4c | 717.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 47c | 626.49$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.32 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 60c | 604.46$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.46 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 54c | 556.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 536.74$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 44c | 431.34$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.82 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 405.22$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 399.78$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 348.69$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 68c | 342.6$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 75c | 312.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 311$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 49c | 267.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 63c | 259.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 47c | 242.68$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 55c | 242.41$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 223.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 41c | 218.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.71 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 26c | 203.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 39c | 192.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 59c | 183.81$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 50c | 182.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 46c | 175.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 175.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 174.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 77c | 164.5$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 47c | 149.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 146.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 10c | 145.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 7c | 135.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 132$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 131.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 74c | 128.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 127.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…352fbacked Yes | 79c | 125.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 44c | 120.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 44c | 114.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 114.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 19c | 109.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 53c | 103.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 102.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 37c | 100.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 93.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 54c | 92.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 55c | 91.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 45c | 88.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 48c | 86.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 84.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 37c | 82.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 49c | 81.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 36c | 78.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 26c | 77.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 73c | 70.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 37c | 70.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 24c | 67.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 45c | 66.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 64.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 64.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 35c | 62.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 50c | 61.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 80c | 60.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 60.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 44c | 60.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 41c | 59.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…4076backed Yes | 54c | 52.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 50.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…7ffebacked Yes | 80c | 50.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c9…91a7backed Yes | 23c | 47.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…1730backed No | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 45c | 46.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 57c | 44.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 43.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 59c | 43.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 73c | 41.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…6847backed Yes | 49c | 41.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 45c | 39.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…3b86backed Yes | 46c | 37.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 45c | 37.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…ef2ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.