Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x624850ac1351f229b3d40313da522d6d003245e203a265b0bbd8718690ea2e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 0c | 5,365$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,404$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.07 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,090$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,004$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 11c | 964.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 34c | 766.68$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 622.31$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 13c | 580.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 8c | 503.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…e786backed Yes | 3c | 491.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 465.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 428.78$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.42 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 4c | 375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 12c | 329.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 25c | 310.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 306.48$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 300.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 42c | 243$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 226.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 212.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 6c | 202.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 42c | 159.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 8c | 156.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 20c | 147.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 77c | 134.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 8c | 131.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 130.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…69a1backed Yes | 12c | 128.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 13c | 128.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…217fbacked Yes | 9c | 124.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…73c0backed Yes | 15c | 123.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 114.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 106.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 17c | 102.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 50c | 100.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 99.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 18c | 99.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 18c | 99.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 13c | 93.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 21c | 87.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked Yes | 46c | 87.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 47c | 83.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 37c | 77.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 14c | 73.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 69.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 79c | 63.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 22c | 62.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 61.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…85b4backed Yes | 22c | 59.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 59.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c34…b5febacked Yes | 32c | 59.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 37c | 59.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 29c | 51.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 32c | 47.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 47c | 42.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 26c | 42.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 78c | 31.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…352fbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 27.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…a285backed No | 74c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 47c | 22.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 80c | 18.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…2c60backed No | 54c | 18.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…0f9fbacked No | 75c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.